EURO 2016 Qualifying Simulations & seedings

[Simboli i Diellit]

From Edgar (footballrankings website)

Long overdue post. And it's quite long.

As usual with competition/pot sims, I used ClubElo's expected goals formula. Games up to and including 15 April 2015.

Best 3rd most like to come out of group:



18.14% - Group A
17.06% - Group C
16.54% - Group G
15.43% - Group D
9.22% - Group E
8.42% - Group H
5.59% - Group B
5.40% - Group F
4.20% - Group I

Top 10 most likely best 3rd team:

12.55% - Ukraine
7.62% - Russia
7.32% - Iceland
6.09% - Netherlands
5.91% - Scotland
5.82% - Slovenia
5.06% - Sweden
4.72% - Poland
4.46% - Norway
3.91% - Czech Republic

Top 10 most likely to be involved in play-offs:

68.59% - Norway
59.44% - Ukraine
55.53% - Slovenia
50.44% - Israel
49.09% - Albania
42.81% - Hungary
32.03% - Russia
31.51% - Scotland
31.35% - Iceland
29.91% - Republic of Ireland

Top 10 most likely to be seeded in the play-offs:

58.13% - Ukraine
31.68% - Russia
31.25% - Hungary
28.69% - Switzerland
27.13% - Sweden
26.22% - Netherlands
23.30% - Slovenia
19.92% - Republic of Ireland
19.49% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
17.28% - Norway

Top 10 most likely to qualify through play-offs:

40.76% - Ukraine
24.90% - Norway
23.58% - Slovenia
23.36% - Netherlands
20.34% - Israel
20.02% - Russia
19.85% - Hungary
19.22% - Switzerland
18.38% - Sweden
17.78% - Republic of Ireland

Most likely to qualify for the final tournament:

99.93% - England
98.70% - Germany
98.59% - Croatia
98.55% - Spain
98.39% - Slovakia
98.22% - Belgium
97.99% - Romania
97.89% - Italy
97.81% - Portugal
94.33% - Austria
91.86% - Czech Republic
91.22% - Netherlands
87.34% - Sweden
86.14% - Switzerland
85.49% - Denmark
82.80% - Wales
81.55% - Russia
79.12% - Ukraine
77.41% - Iceland
76.55% - Poland
72.79% - Northern Ireland
60.10% - Slovenia
51.51% - Hungary
48.96% - Scotland
45.79% - Israel
39.82% - Albania
38.73% - Norway
36.94% - Republic of Ireland
16.78% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
16.57% - Serbia
11.07% - Finland
8.34% - Greece
8.32% - Turkey
7.65% - Bulgaria
5.36% - Montenegro
3.39% - Lithuania
3.31% - Armenia
2.04% - Cyprus
1.06% - Estonia
0.96% - Belarus
0.20% - Azerbaijan
0.19% - Latvia
0.07% - Faroe Islands
0.07% - FYR Macedonia
0.05% - Georgia
0.03% - Liechtenstein
0.02% - Moldova

Final tournament draw

Pot 4

82.23% - Wales
73.57% - Iceland
72.79% - Northern Ireland
47.50% - Scotland
41.82% - Slovenia
39.81% - Albania
35.70% - Israel
31.13% - Norway
21.36% - Slovakia
21.08% - Poland
19.21% - Denmark
17.29% - Republic of Ireland
15.71% - Hungary
15.65% - Austria
15.00% - Serbia
11.07% - Finland
7.65% - Bulgaria
6.95% - Romania
4.96% - Montenegro
4.36% - Turkey
3.39% - Lithuania
3.27% - Armenia
2.49% - Czech Republic
2.04% - Cyprus
1.06% - Estonia
0.96% - Belarus
0.82% - Ukraine
0.43% - Sweden
0.20% - Azerbaijan
0.19% - Latvia
0.07% - Faroe Islands
0.07% - FYR Macedonia
0.05% - Georgia
0.04% - Russia
0.03% - Switzerland
0.03% - Liechtenstein
0.02% - Moldova

Pot 3

71.34% - Austria
71.22% - Slovakia
66.22% - Romania
65.48% - Czech Republic
60.70% - Denmark
51.28% - Poland
44.03% - Sweden
34.71% - Hungary
20.17% - Switzerland
19.57% - Republic of Ireland
18.66% - Ukraine
18.24% - Slovenia
14.04% - Russia
10.08% - Israel
8.04% - Croatia
7.58% - Norway
4.11% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
3.96% - Turkey
3.84% - Iceland
1.76% - Greece
1.57% - Serbia
1.46% - Scotland
0.85% - Portugal
0.57% - Wales
0.40% - Montenegro
0.06% - Italy
0.04% - Armenia
0.01% - Albania
0.01% - England

Pot 2

87.59% - Croatia
74.14% - Portugal
67.34% - Russia
65.85% - Switzerland
58.75% - Ukraine
54.43% - Italy
42.87% - Sweden
33.38% - Belgium
24.82% - Romania
23.89% - Czech Republic
23.36% - England
12.67% - Bosnia-Herzegovina
7.34% - Austria
6.58% - Greece
5.81% - Slovakia
5.58% - Denmark
4.19% - Poland
1.09% - Hungary
0.17% - Netherlands
0.08% - Republic of Ireland
0.04% - Slovenia
0.02% - Norway
0.01% - Israel

Pot 1

98.70% - Germany
98.55% - Spain
91.05% - Netherlands
76.56% - England
64.84% - Belgium
43.40% - Italy
22.82% - Portugal
2.96% - Croatia
0.89% - Ukraine
0.13% - Russia
0.09% - Switzerland
0.01% - Sweden