Kosova Crisis: "Serb terrorist attack in Kosovo!"

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Shpati
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Aurora Bulkualis wrote: Sun Oct 01, 2023 7:39 am My prediction for this whole thing is Kosova (along with the Presheva valley) will be split between Serbia and Albania. If Serbia gets the north of Kosovo along with the Trepca mines, I don't they'd give a shit if the rest of it along with Presheva merges with Albania. Getting a "portion of Kosovo", no matter how small, will be a win in their eyes, especially if it comes with that huge economic benefit.

For better or worse, the only short term path of normalization is if Kosova/Presheva get absorbed into Albania, and Serbia doesn't have to recognize anything. But this will mean the Trepca mines will be gone, and you'll get a huge west/east economic division between Albanians, where Tirana + the coastline cities of Shkoder-Lezhe-Durres-Fier-Vlore-Sarande will hold disproportionate amounts of power. Eastern Albania today has already been almost abandoned (apart from Korce).
Yes, this will be a huge W for Serbia. But they won't ever do that. In their minds, all of Kosova is still Serbia's.
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If Trump and Grenell get back into office, I think the north is gone and maybe even more. They are really wanting to secure a Serbian alliance and are dumb enough to believe that Serbia will relinquish their Russian and Chinese ties.

Grenell really hates Kurti + Osmani. Yet, really likes Thaci.

Thaci had so much dirt on him so the west could blackmail and manipulate him all day. Kurti is clean and has a backbone. It's just funny how Thaci is preferred by an administration who yells "corruption" "hypocrisy" at every turn.

I don't expect the Biden administration to do anything other than make a few phone calls.

EU and NATO is useless as well

Long term... I believe Rama gets a puppet government planted in Kosova with the help of his rich friends. There might be more jobs to offer and more traffic; so on the outside, things look good and healthy. I think he wants to get in there prior to a potential land swap, because most of the wealth opportunity is in the north.

I don't see an outcome where Kurti stays PM.
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Thing about Kosovo is that it could not secure its own independence without the intervention of the west. Therefore, it can not be truly sovereign and will always be at the whim of those external forces that guarantee its security.

That being said, Kosovo is the baby of the west. NATO is stretched pretty thin at the moment due to the Russian SMO but nonetheless, they will never let Serbia have its way with Kosovo. Serbia is also landlocked and surrounded by pro-European nations making it difficult for Russia to get involved in any serious capacity.
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Plako
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Shpati wrote: Mon Oct 02, 2023 6:13 pm If Trump and Grenell get back into office, I think the north is gone and maybe even more. They are really wanting to secure a Serbian alliance and are dumb enough to believe that Serbia will relinquish their Russian and Chinese ties.

Grenell really hates Kurti + Osmani. Yet, really likes Thaci.

Thaci had so much dirt on him so the west could blackmail and manipulate him all day. Kurti is clean and has a backbone. It's just funny how Thaci is preferred by an administration who yells "corruption" "hypocrisy" at every turn.

I don't expect the Biden administration to do anything other than make a few phone calls.

EU and NATO is useless as well

Long term... I believe Rama gets a puppet government planted in Kosova with the help of his rich friends. There might be more jobs to offer and more traffic; so on the outside, things look good and healthy. I think he wants to get in there prior to a potential land swap, because most of the wealth opportunity is in the north.

I don't see an outcome where Kurti stays PM.
Of course he likes Thaci, as Thaci was doing his bidding. Trump wanted to show that he could resolve the conflict between Serbia and Kosova just like he did with Israel and some Arab countries.

Remember when Trump made Vucic and Hoti sign this agreement. He thought he saved the day lol

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iG3srA1j42I
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Shpati
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Plako wrote: Mon Oct 02, 2023 7:00 pm
Of course he likes Thaci, as Thaci was doing his bidding. Trump wanted to show that he could resolve the conflict between Serbia and Kosova just like he did with Israel and some Arab countries.

Remember when Trump made Vucic and Hoti sign this agreement. He thought he saved the day lol

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iG3srA1j42I
lol yeah, of course I remember that. It looked like Hoti has no idea what was going on.

Trump had them both sign completely separate agreements.

And I think he was on Twitter saying something like "another peace treaty in the middle east" [in reference to Kosova].
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Plako
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Shpati wrote: Mon Oct 02, 2023 7:04 pm
Plako wrote: Mon Oct 02, 2023 7:00 pm
Of course he likes Thaci, as Thaci was doing his bidding. Trump wanted to show that he could resolve the conflict between Serbia and Kosova just like he did with Israel and some Arab countries.

Remember when Trump made Vucic and Hoti sign this agreement. He thought he saved the day lol

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iG3srA1j42I
lol yeah, of course I remember that. It looked like Hoti has no idea what was going on.

Trump had them both sign completely separate agreements.

And I think he was on Twitter saying something like "another peace treaty in the middle east" [in reference to Kosova].
He wanted to get a Nobel Peace Prize like Obama so badly lol
https://www.jpost.com/international/tru ... eal-642067
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Shpati
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Plako wrote: Mon Oct 02, 2023 7:13 pm
Shpati wrote: Mon Oct 02, 2023 7:04 pm
Plako wrote: Mon Oct 02, 2023 7:00 pm
Of course he likes Thaci, as Thaci was doing his bidding. Trump wanted to show that he could resolve the conflict between Serbia and Kosova just like he did with Israel and some Arab countries.

Remember when Trump made Vucic and Hoti sign this agreement. He thought he saved the day lol

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iG3srA1j42I
lol yeah, of course I remember that. It looked like Hoti has no idea what was going on.

Trump had them both sign completely separate agreements.

And I think he was on Twitter saying something like "another peace treaty in the middle east" [in reference to Kosova].
He wanted to get a Nobel Peace Prize like Obama so badly lol
https://www.jpost.com/international/tru ... eal-642067
What was so weird about this "deal" was Israel / Jerusalem being a part of it as some sort of common ground.
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artan
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There will be no changes to the borders. The only thing that may happen is the North may get semi autonomous status and become a Republika Srpska 2.0. And at this point they kind of are since they are running a parallel state and they only answer to Belgrade.

Kudos for Kurti for actually trying to re-establish authority.
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